Here are the results of waves 2 and 3 of our electoral protest indicator, launched in September 2019 in view of the upcoming presidential election. Wave 2 of this survey (from 23 to 31 January 2020) took place in the context of a deep social and political crisis mixing the persistence of the Yellow Vests’ protests with demonstrative opposition to the retirement
The context of wave 3 (from 7 to 11 September 2020) is that of a suspended or postponed conflict, under the effect of the health crisis brought on by the Covid-19 pandemic. This wave 3 is a continuation of the unprecedented collective experience of lockdown, between 17 March and 11 May 2020, followed by new spikes in contamination and the fear of a second wave of the pandemic.
As each crisis wave is added to the previous one, the question arises as to how this unrest, unprecedented in its anomic form and intensity, will express itself in the 2022 presidential election. Our indicator aims to help understand and anticipate the outline of this future presidential election, keeping in mind that the largest political event in France is not without European consequences.
The election protest indicator was developed by the Fondation pour l’innovation politique and the survey was administered by the polling institute OpinionWay. For each wave, the questionnaire is administered to a sample of more than 3,000 people who are registered to vote.
The results of wave 1 led to an initial publication (October 2019) available here. Here are the results of wave 3, with which we are also presenting those of wave 2, as its publication was postponed due to the lockdown. All the results of the survey are freely available on our website data.fondapol.org.