The 2017 presidential election was marked by an anti-establishment vote of an unprecedented magnitude in our electoral history. Since then, far from ebbing, protest seems to have become a permanent feature. Moreover, it has taken on multiple forms. In addition to the usual social movements, the Yellow Vests, the ZAD, the Animalists or climate change activists, and a growing number of hyperactive organised minorities, led by political, religious, environmental or societal leaders who seem quicker than past leaders to turn to unconventional methods of political action (occupation of premises, disobedience, violence, etc.) have recently entered the political scene.
The question arises as to how this unrest, unparalleled in its anomic form and in the intensity through which it has shown itself capable, will play out with regards to the 2022 presidential election. Our indicator seeks to help understand and anticipate the outline of this future presidential election, keeping in mind that the largest political event in France is not without European consequences.
This Electoral Protest Indicator was developed by the Fondation pour l’innovation politique. The survey was administered by the polling institute OpinionWay. The full results of 2022, the populist risk in France are freely available at data.fondapol.org. To ensure the robustness and value of the data collected, we chose to analyse a particularly large sample. We thus interviewed 3,006 registered voters from a sample of participants of 3,265 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over.
All results available at data.fondapol.org.