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The Fondation pour l’innovation politique hereby publishes its projections of the results of the European elections of May 2019.
The projections were made from cumulative surveys of voting intentions, carried out and published in each of the 28 countries of the European Union.
Director of the Fondation pour l’innovation politique, Professor at Sciences Po, Paris.
1. Meps hostile to the European Union would represent a third party of the European Parliament
Disparate, divided, sovereignists, nationalists, out-of-system, left-wing or right-wing, parties hostile to Europe carry a speech that goes from the systematic criticism of the European Union to the project of leaving it. All in all, including Parliamentarians who are not members of any group (non-attached), the MEPs who are more or less aware of this hostility would represent 35.3% of the members of the European Parliament with the British (751 seats) and 32.4% in aParliament without the British (705 seats).
2. The percentage of Meps hostile to the European Union would double in relation to 2004
The number of MEPs hostile to the European Union increased both in 2009 and in 2014. It is expected to increase even further in 2019. If the predictions are confirmed, the percentage of “anti-European Union” MEPs would reach 35.3% of the European Parliament with the British (751 seats), doubling the level from 2004 (17.6%), and 32.4% of the Parliament without the British (705 seats).
3.End of the duopoly EPP-S&D and stagnation of the greens
On the basis of a European Parliament with the British (751 seats) and compared to 2014, the Group of the EuropeanPeople’s Party (EPP) would recede by 5 points, losing 34 seats; the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group would fall by 6 points, losing 43 seats; on the other hand, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE) would rise by 5 points, gaining 35 seats. Last notable fact: according to our projection, the group of the Greens would not be more important in 2019 in a Parliament with the British (6.4%) compared to 2014 (6.7%); in a Parliament without the British (705 seats), it would be slightly larger (7.4%) than in 2014 (6.7%).
4.A European Parliament with multiple majorities
The two main groups (EPP and S&D) would no longer be able to obtain a majority. Other combinations will have to be envisioned. No ideological majority is possible. According to the tradition of the European Parliament, only a coalition could constitute a majority. The EPP-S&D coalition representing only 44.6% of MEPs would no longer be sufficient. From an arithmetic point of view, three majority coalitions would be possible in a European Parliament with the British (751 seats): EPP-S&D-ALDE-Greens (64.7%), EPP-S&D-ALDE (58.3%) or EPP-S&D-Greens (51%). In a European Parliament without the British (705 seats), the same coalitions could obtain a majority but with significantly different results: EPP-S&D-ALDE-Greens (67.6%), EPP-S&D-ALDE (60.2%) or EPP-S&D-Greens (53.6%).